ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey

The ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey measures employers’ intentions to increase or decrease the number of employees in their workforce during the upcoming quarter. It is the most extensive forward-looking survey of its kind, unparalleled in its size, scope and longevity. The Survey has been running since 1962 and is one of the most trusted indicators of labor market trends in the world.

All the data in the survey is based on the answer to one question: How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the coming three months as compared to the current quarter?

In addition to the main employment question, the survey asks up to six additional questions which change quarterly. These questions reflect changing economic or workforce dynamics and trends. Topic areas range from talent shortage to workforce training and development to employee sentiments and well-being.

The Net Employment Outlook is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity and subtracting from this the percentage of employers that expect to see a decrease in employment at their location in the next quarter. A positive Net Employment Outlook figure means that, on balance, there are more employers who expect to add to their headcount in the following three months than those who intend to reduce staff.

The ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey only measures if employers expect to hire or not and does not provide information about specific job changes. The Survey is a forecast, not a commitment, based on informed opinions from employers and hiring managers on what will likely happen in their organization in the following quarter.

The Q2 2023 ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey is based on interviews with nearly 39,000 public and private employers in 41 countries.

The methodology used to collect the data for the Employment Outlook is digitized across the 41 markets, beginning with the Q1 2022 report.

Respondents in previous quarters were contacted via telephone. Data is now collected online with double opt-in member panels and they are incentivized to complete the survey.

In line with standard findings of online surveys, more people are now taking a position – selecting that their workforce will either increase or decrease vs. no change. Because the Net Employment Outlook is based only on the people saying increase or decrease, the result of this higher level of engagement means the methodology shift may contribute to a higher Outlook.

The survey data was collected in January of 2023.

Employers are selected based on the types of companies and organizations they represent. We want to ensure that our panel is representative of each participating country’s national labor market, so each country’s panel is built in proportion to that country’s overall distribution of industry sectors and organization sizes.

The person we select to interview will be someone with a good overview of staffing levels and hiring intentions within their organization. Normally this will be the head of HR or an HR manager. However, in smaller organizations, that person may be a general manager or even the CEO.

Reputation Leaders is our lead research partner who analyzes data for all 40 countries and territories to ensure consistency.

By their very nature, surveys are imperfect measures. All surveys have a margin of error, which is largely determined by the number of interviews completed. For the ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey, the minimum panel size in each country and territory is 620 to ensure a margin of error no greater than +/-3.9%. This prevents undue distortion of the data because of one respondent changing their response from one quarter to the next. No single panel member represents more than 2% of the total sample in an industry sector or region.

Seasonal adjustment is a statistical process that allows the Survey data to be presented without the impact of hiring fluctuations that normally occur through the course of the year, usually as a result of various external factors, such changes in weather, traditional production cycles and public holidays. Seasonal adjustment has the effect of flattening peaks and smoothing troughs in the data to better illustrate underlying employment trends and provide a more accurate representation of the ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey results.

ManpowerGroup does not track retrospective hiring trends as part of the Employment Outlook Survey, only forward-looking expectations. However, we are able to see that the Survey results do align with employment trends reported by governments and other organizations quite closely and provide one of the most robust and trusted indicators of forward-looking labor market trends in the world.

There are several ways to review the results, which are reported for 40 countries and territories, and specific industries and regions within each. The current results, including the Net Employment Outlook, provides a snapshot of employers’ expectations for the coming three months. Comparing this result to the previous quarter provides a short-term perspective of hiring expectations in a particular country or sector, while comparing to the previous year gives a longer-term view on employer intentions. The Employment Outlook Survey Data Explorer (above) is a helpful tool to explore these trends over a ten-year period and compare regions, countries and industry sectors.